Chips, Cuts & CPI

The US government is all business. Trump’s taking a cut of chip sales to China.

I would PAY to watch economists trying to model any of this.

And the big data this week… Will US inflation derail the rally?

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Policy as Business: US Chipmakers and the State’s Cut

A bombshell hit over the weekend: Nvidia and AMD agreed to hand over 15% of AI chip sales to the US government as a condition for exporting to China.

It’s wholly unprecedented, with the administration operating as business first, regulator second.

The mafia analogy isn’t far off. Policy risk is firmly embedded: tariff exclusion headlines whipsaw positions & the market must now digest this new revenue-sharing regime.

The market had priced in the return of chip sales to China, so this news is incrementally negative for earnings (AMD & NVDA are down in pre) if not a true headwind in the medium term.

Rates, Data, and the Macro Backdrop

All eyes this week are on US CPI and retail sales.

A hot inflation number could force the Fed to abandon September rate cut plans, upend current forecasts of at least two rate cuts this year & yank risk appetites as policy uncertainty bites.

Meanwhile, the recent Visa spending momentum indicator & Goldman’s expectations for solid retail data both suggest underlying US consumer resilience.

Elevated USD shorts could add fuel if trend reversals trigger.

Across the Atlantic, sterling is vulnerable as UK data disappoints and the Bank of England’s hawkish turn looks increasingly out of step with reality.

Crypto Snapbacks, Trend Respected

Crypto bounced sharply off recent lows.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all saw strong price action as short-term sentiment shifted. The lesson was classic: trend respect trumps forecasts.

While retail tried to call tops, price action did the talking.

Equities with crypto links, like Robinhood, gained as crypto’s bid spilled over into share prices, replaying the “risk-on” pattern seen sector-wide.

Sector Rotation: Tech Still on Top, Defensives Recover

Last week was tech-dominated again.

Materials joined in but healthcare and energy lagged.

As earnings seasons winds down, the market is sifting through results for pockets of momentum.

Robinhood, Reddit, and other high-momentum names continue to perform, while Reddit’s ongoing strength highlights how extended rallies can still drift higher even after shakes and pullbacks.

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Earnings Spotlight: Barrick, Oklo, Cisco

Peak earnings may be over, but a handful of names are on deck.

Oklo’s alternative energy story has faded from earlier highs but remains on the radar;

Cisco jumps out as a late-season tech long reporting this week.

Continued vigilance on post-earnings drift is crucial, especially for extended leaders and potential reversal setups.

Barrick is in focus today both for earnings and as a gold miner facing tariff noise…

Gold Mechanics: Tariff Risk Sparks Temporary Dislocation

Gold markets were briefly upended after US Customs threatened to tariff Swiss 1kg gold bars, temporarily dislocating spot & futures pricing.

With the White House now backpedalling and blaming customs for ‘speaking out of turn’, gold has settled back into its stubborn range, highlighting once again that political noise remains a driver for “safe haven” prices.

Barrick’s trading and earnings sit at the intersection of these moving policy parts.

AI, Memory, and Second-Order Winners

SK Hynix forecasts AI memory demand to compound 30% annually to 2030, reinforcing the bull case for Micron and the wider memory space.

While Micron’s run stalled a few weeks back after strong earnings, longer term growth themes remain robust, especially now tariff exemptions for companies building in the US are confirmed. Friday’s action was encouraging.

As always, keep an eye on sector breadth and confirmation; the best setups cluster as narratives and tape align.

This daily note is only a glimpse of what we talk about every single day in the Fink Community.

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