solar whiplash

Solar investors are betting on a win for the lobbyists.

Makes sense, they usually get what they want.

Plus Jackson Hole & some important earnings…

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Macro Watch: Jackson Hole Looms, Fed Plays Defence

Markets are eyeing Friday’s Jackson Hole summit for signals on rate cuts.

Consensus expects a cautious posture from Powell.

Tim reckons he’ll guide towards a September cut, but then disappoint by talking about a more gradual “quarterly” cutting cycle, rather than a sharp pivot.

The only reason the Fed ‘should’ cut now is because rates are still high relative to inflation, and labour market slack is gone.

Inflation isn’t back to target, but unless the Fed wants to push the economy towards recession, there’s not much they can do.

Services inflation remains sticky even as headline price pressures subside, leaving the Fed hyper-focused on risk management rather than proactive easing.

Labour market has softened but not yet dramatically enough to force a panic, so big changes seem unlikely, but even conditional guidance may move the tape in a data-light week.

Flows & Sector Moves: Rotation Hints, Tech Not Done

Friday saw markets pull back, as tech & financials underperformed.

Small caps staged a relative comeback, and signs of sector rotation emerged.

The “winners keep winning, losers keep losing” dynamic persists, particularly in the “Mag 7” and AI names.

Watch for quick rotations if valuation premiums start to trigger profit-taking.

AI, batteries & energy remain dominant themes, but speculative pockets, especially among penny stocks, are being punished.

Of course, you already knew this was happening over a month ago because you follow one of the best accounts on Twitter (it’s never going to be X)

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Solar Surge, Subsidies Under Fire

Energy and “lack thereof” are back at the top of the agenda.

Major US tech and cloud players, including Oracle and Amazon, are lobbying hard to preserve renewable energy subsidies; the news buoyed solar stocks on Friday, with First Solar leading the charge.

First Solar is now breaking out of consolidation above its 20-day, with the industry’s structural demand for data centre power a key tailwind.

With policy risk at play, sector volatility could rise if Congress moves to trim support.

Policy has been whiplashing solar investors for months now. A resolution on this could really see the sector fly.

Earnings Highlights: Meta, Target, Walmart Drive Narrative

Earnings season is almost done, but Walmart & Target are big events this week.

The market expects confirmation that consumers are healthy and tariff risks are manageable, particularly for low margin-high volume retailers.

Meta’s monster earnings and new hardware launches continue to buoy their growth expectations, with bullish revisions and resilient profit margins permeating the tape more broadly.

Cyberspace firms remain deeply out of favour, but a narrative flip could emerge with a positive earnings/guidance surprise from Palo Alto today.

Low odds, but it pays to be vigilant.

Strategy Notes: Buy Dips in Leaders, Manage Position Size

The playbook remains unchanged: rotate if the tape demands, but use volatility to add quality and AI leaders rather than over-chasing laggards.

Size positions to avoid emotional decision-making if momentum stalls.

View “generational” opportunities with positive skepticism; every meme trade (UNH) is just another trade until real catalysts hit.

It’s fine to be invested, just don’t get emotionally invested .

Systematic risk management and disciplined scaling create the ‘luck’ needed for repeatable performance.

Positioning Pulse: Everything’s Positive, But Stay Alert

Underlying credit and consumer spending look solid, removing obstacles to positioning with reasonable risk.

Narrow breadth remains a ‘concern’ for some, but most signs suggest dips will refresh.

Watch for event-driven volatility this week.

Jackson Hole, retail earnings, geopolitics (notably Russia/Ukraine peace talks), with the expectation that strong trends will persist unless a genuine negative catalyst emerges.

This daily note is only a glimpse of what we talk about every single day in the Fink Community.

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