Take Risks, Get Lucky

How can you NOT love markets?

Especially right now when there’s soooooooo much going on.

Another hurdle was cleared yesterday after the ‘hot’ PPI dip was bought.

Higher we go…

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Macro Picture: Market Shrugs Off PPI “Fear”

Hot PPI data briefly rattled nerves, but indices rebounded rapidly as traders saw through the hype.

Panic sells are frequently ignored when earnings and the trend are strong.

Markets shrugged off inflation chatter, retested the prior days lows, and drifted right back toward highs.

There’s no broad risk-off trigger in sight; despite pockets of volatility, the regime remains “grind higher until genuine reasons to worry emerge.”

Macro View: Inflation Noise, Not Signal

The PPI spike was distorted by portfolio fees & financial services, not systemic inflation pressure.

The market isn’t buying the “cancel the cuts” narrative you’ll see on socials.

Core inflation sticks around 0.3%, but the breadth and persistence simply aren’t there to scare the Fed into hawkishness.

Rate cut bets are still VERY alive for September.

Low jobless claims so far confirm US exceptionalism, and neither macro nor labour is breaking the narrative.

Retail Sales today are the next piece of the puzzle. BofA reckons they’ll beat, which would likely push stocks higher again.

In this market regime, even an inline print is probably ‘good enough’.

Stock Highlights: Intel & UnitedHealth

Intel lights up chats with speculation that the US government could take a stake, a “Boeing moment” for American chips.

UnitedHealth is experiencing retail and institutional FOMO, buoyed by short interest and meme-chase dynamics, but questions about the earnings trajectory are yet to be answered.

It seems like every fund on earth was buying UNH in Q2.

They’re all still underwater to breakeven on those positions, even with the big pre-market move, but these guys have a far longer time horizon than your average retail punter.

Good reminder that everyone’s playing different games over different timeframes…

UnitedHealth is the meme of the moment, trading on a cocktail of hedge-fund and retail animal spirits.

Bulls expect either a meme-driven gamma squeeze or a long-awaited value recovery, but technicals & concerns over the business model say scale in and size carefully.

Intel continues its transition story.

After its post-earnings dip and White House CEO summons, we’ve evolved to rumours that the US government could buy a stake…

If confirmed, that surely makes Intel a “must own” for the next leg up, mirroring Boeing’s turnaround after political intervention (and plenty of other names where the Trump Admin has told us EXACTLY which sectors & companies are being favoured)

CEO credibility, tariff exemptions, and free cash flow become the new metrics to watch.

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Strategy Notes: Participation Over Perfection

Traders & investors get paid for taking calculated risks, not waiting for the “perfect” entry.

Imagine that the biggest risk is watching the rally from the sidelines.

That you didn’t get involved because ‘it doesn’t make sense’.

Whether your exposure is tactical or systematic, taking “a tickle” in names showing change is worthwhile to break the fear cycle.

The cost of being entirely absent during bull markets is a bigger risk than short-term drawdowns.

Don’t get caught up in perfect narratives and delayed payoffs.

Trend and momentum still win this tape.

Positioning Pulse: Let Luck Find You

Systematic, disciplined exposure, even in small size, keeps you alert, engaged & primed for opportunities.

Chasing every meme is a losing battle, but ignoring market leadership and emerging catalysts means missing out when luck (and news) breaks your way.

You can’t ‘get lucky’ if you’re not involved…

Scaling in, scaling out, and learning to play your own game is the edge.

Regret minimisation is as important as return maximisation.

This daily note is only a glimpse of what we talk about every single day in the Fink Community.

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