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There are no Big Ideas to be found on LinkedIn

‘Tell us your 2024 Big Idea by adding #BigIdeas2024!’ NO.

The Spark
There are no Big Ideas to be found on LinkedIn

‘Tell us your 2024 Big Idea by adding #BigIdeas2024!’ NO.

‘Here's my biggest idea for 2024.

That absolutely none of the other ideas mentioned by people on here will come to light.

You're asking so many to produce content but they're only doing it to get eyes on.

The reality is that Big Ideas are effectively tail events -- they aren't going to be predicted by someone on LinkedIn who is likely just saying something a bit out there to get likes.

My Big Idea for 2024 is this -- we have more normality.

See, we're coming from a base of the last 3 years as having been insane.

Economically, socially, market wise...

I mean, the world was shut down for a year and a bit or something (I no longer have an understanding of time over the pandemic period).

Check the picture below.

I think what we see is a trend back towards the middle of the curve.

Even with politics, we are seeing a reversion -- Giorgia Meloni came in and reverted on many of her far right policies.

Javier Milei has already seen the glitz of the Argentinean high office and, although being Libertarian, has committed to the Paris Climate Treaty after having gone through the grand traditional parade and ceremony of becoming Argentina's leader.

These are reversions to the mean -- it is so rare that you get left tail events cropping up, and Big Ideas, even in business, tend to just be culminations of lots of little ideas over time.

Of course, AI is the one big one for 2023, but it's overshadowed by a bunch of weird nerds who have a narcissism about what they're doing being the most important thing ever...

When most of my AI searches are to create images of some of the stupidest stuff ever.

Big Ideas might make for sexy content, but realistically, Big Ideas are rare, even rarer that they are monetisable and they're certainly not coming from a LinkedIn 'Top Voice'.’

🧠 The Big Brain
Reality doesn't care about your narratives

Loads going on this week - soft, hard, yields, Fed

Looking a lot like peak soft landing vibes. Lots to test that view this week.

Here’s our take on the main events and what to watch out for.

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Subscribe to Fink Pro to read the FULL Big Brain piece, every single day (30-day free trial so absolutely NO risk).

💡 The Lightbulb
Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics

Separating truth from fiction

It’s easy to lie with statistics. A lot of the time it even happens by accident (confirmation bias is a powerful drug).

Sometimes, the truth is stranger than fiction…

Take this stat for example.

China used as much cement in just two years as the US did in an entire century.

@fink.tok

This economic stat is so insane to think about. #economiccrisis #housingcrisis

Sounds ridiculous, but absolutely true. China’s been in a massive infrastructure and housing boom for years now.

Now for a less insane one.

Britain regrets Brexit

Sounds highly plausible, and comes with a handy chart to illustrate.

One minor problem.

There’s almost 68 million people in Britain.

I have no idea if Britain regrets Brexit, but I’m pretty sure a survey of 0.0029% of the population isn’t statistically significant enough to credibly make the claim.

Then there’s the question marks over the sampling. Does anyone that’s not ‘excessively online’ still care about Brexit? Enough to fill in a survey?

Or could there be something else influencing opinion…

On that note… This sounds VERY familiar: